Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
TLDR
Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
Citations
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Invasive species distribution modeling (iSDM): Are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actual distributions?
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluated the impact of presence-only, true-absence and pseudoabsence data on model accuracy using an extensive dataset on the distribution of the invasive forest pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in California.
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Global diversity of drought tolerance and grassland climate-change resilience
Joseph M. Craine,Troy W. Ocheltree,Jesse B. Nippert,E. Gene Towne,Adam M. Skibbe,Steven W. Kembel,Joseph Fargione +6 more
TL;DR: This paper showed that many of the world’s grasslands probably have drought-tolerant grasses that can maintain ecosystem functions, and the resilience of grasslands globally requires the maintenance of grass diversity.
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Biodiversity conservation: Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk
Wilfried Thuiller,Miguel B. Araújo,Richard G. Pearson,Robert J. Whittaker,Lluís Brotons,Sandra Lavorel +5 more
TL;DR: The model species-distribution responses to a range of climate-warming scenarios and a novel application of the species–area relationship are used to estimate that 15–37% of modelled species in various regions of the world will be committed to extinction by 2050.
Journal ArticleDOI
Successful range-expanding plants experience less above-ground and below-ground enemy impact
T. Engelkes,Elly Morriën,Koen J. F. Verhoeven,T. Martijn Bezemer,Arjen Biere,Jeffrey A. Harvey,Lauren M. McIntyre,Wil L. M. Tamis,Wim H. van der Putten +8 more
TL;DR: The results strongly suggest that the plants that shift ranges towards higher latitudes and altitudes may include potential invaders, as the successful range expanders may experience less control by above-ground or below-ground enemies than the natives.
Journal ArticleDOI
Land-use and climate change within assessments of biodiversity change: A review
TL;DR: In this article, a review of studies of the effects of these drivers singly and in combination highlights little discussed complexities in revising these estimates, in addition to considering interactions, different characterisations of climate change, land-use change and biodiversity greatly influence estimates.
References
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Book
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