Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
A stable isotopic investigation into the causes of decline in a sub‐Antarctic predator, the rockhopper penguin Eudyptes chrysocome
Geoff M. Hilton,David R. Thompson,Paul M. Sagar,Richard J. Cuthbert,Yves Cherel,Sarah J. Bury +5 more
TL;DR: Overall, d 13 C signatures decreased significantly over time in rockhopper penguins from seven breeding sites, supporting the hypothesis that decreases in primary productivity, and hence, carrying capacity, have been associated with the decline of penguin populations.
Journal ArticleDOI
Constrain to perform: Regularization of habitat models
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compare three regularization methods for logistic regression: variable selection, lasso, and ridge, and conclude that ridge is the risk-averse model that can be expected to perform well under a wide range of underlying species.
Journal ArticleDOI
Boom‐bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept
David L. Strayer,David L. Strayer,Carla M. D'Antonio,Franz Essl,Mike S. Fowler,Juergen Geist,Sabine Hilt,Ivan Jarić,Ivan Jarić,Klaus Jöhnk,Clive G. Jones,Xavier Lambin,Alexander W. Latzka,Jan Pergl,Petr Pyšek,Petr Pyšek,Petr Pyšek,Peter A. Robertson,Menja von Schmalensee,Robert A. Stefansson,Justin P. Wright,Jonathan M. Jeschke,Jonathan M. Jeschke +22 more
TL;DR: Tests with simulated data show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all.
Journal ArticleDOI
Field theory for biogeography: a spatially explicit model for predicting patterns of biodiversity.
TL;DR: This article draws upon the methods of quantum field theory and the foundation of neutral community ecology to derive the first spatially explicit neutral prediction for the species–area relationship (SAR), and finds that the SAR has three phases.
Journal ArticleDOI
Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change
Eve McDonald-Madden,Eve McDonald-Madden,Michael C. Runge,Michael C. Runge,Hugh P. Possingham,Tara G. Martin,Tara G. Martin +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a quantitative decision framework was proposed to evaluate the optimal timing of relocation and showed that in some cases, such as when population size is small, haste is ill advised.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities
Norman Myers,Russell A. Mittermeier,Cristina G. Mittermeier,Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca,Jennifer Kent +4 more
TL;DR: A ‘silver bullet’ strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on ‘biodiversity hotspots’ where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat, is proposed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change 2001: the scientific basis
John Theodore Houghton,Y. Ding,David John Griggs,M. Noguer,P. J. van der Linden,X. Dai,K. Maskell,C. A. Johnson +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Journal ArticleDOI
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
Camille Parmesan,Gary W. Yohe +1 more
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100.
Osvaldo E. Sala,F. S. Chapin,Juan J. Armesto,Eric L. Berlow,Janine Bloomfield,Rodolfo Dirzo,E Huber-Sanwald,Laura Foster Huenneke,Robert B. Jackson,Ann P. Kinzig,Rik Leemans,David M. Lodge,Harold A. Mooney,Martín Oesterheld,N L Poff,Martin T. Sykes,Brian Walker,Marilyn D. Walker,Diana H. Wall +18 more
TL;DR: This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
Book
Species Diversity in Space and Time
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a hierarchical dynamic puzzle to understand the relationship between habitat diversity and species diversity and the evolution of the relationships between habitats diversity and diversity in evolutionary time.