Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
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Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
Citations
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Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: A test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar
TL;DR: A novel jackknife validation approach is developed and tested to assess the ability to predict species occurrence when fewer than 25 occurrence records are available and the minimum sample sizes required to yield useful predictions remain difficult to determine.
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Ensemble forecasting of species distributions
Miguel B. Araújo,Mark New +1 more
TL;DR: It is argued that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.
Journal ArticleDOI
Parallel Declines in Pollinators and Insect-Pollinated Plants in Britain and the Netherlands
Jacobus C. Biesmeijer,Stuart P. M. Roberts,Menno Reemer,Ralf Ohlemüller,Michael Edwards,T.M.J. Peeters,T.M.J. Peeters,A. P. Schaffers,Simon G. Potts,R.M.J.C. Kleukers,Chris D. Thomas,Josef Settele,William E. Kunin +12 more
TL;DR: Evidence of declines (pre-versus post-1980) in local bee diversity in Britain and the Netherlands is found and a causal connection between local extinctions of functionally linked plant and pollinator species is strongly suggested.
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The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection
Stuart L. Pimm,Clinton N. Jenkins,Robin Abell,Thomas M. Brooks,John L. Gittleman,Lucas Joppa,Peter H. Raven,Callum M. Roberts,Joseph O. Sexton +8 more
TL;DR: The biodiversity of eukaryote species and their extinction rates, distributions, and protection is reviewed, and what the future rates of species extinction will be, how well protected areas will slow extinction Rates, and how the remaining gaps in knowledge might be filled are reviewed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: implications for background and pseudo-absence data
Steven J. Phillips,Miroslav Dudík,Jane Elith,Catherine H. Graham,Anthony Lehmann,John R. Leathwick,Simon Ferrier +6 more
TL;DR: It is argued that increased awareness of the implications of spatial bias in surveys, and possible modeling remedies, will substantially improve predictions of species distributions and as large an effect on predictive performance as the choice of modeling method.
References
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