Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
TLDR
Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.read more
Citations
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The recent past and promising future for data integration methods to estimate species’ distributions
TL;DR: This work outlines the general principles that have guided data integration methods and review recent developments and outlines key areas that allow for a more general framework for integrating data and provides suggestions for improving sampling design and validation for integrated models.
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African plant diversity and climate change
Colin J. McClean,Jon C. Lovett,Wolfgang Küper,Lee Hannah,Jan Henning Sommer,Wilhelm Barthlott,Mette Termansen,Gideon F. Smith,Simon Tokumine,James Taplin +9 more
TL;DR: The models suggest that efforts to protect African plant diversity should take future climate-forced distribution changes into account, and indicate dramatic change in the Guineo-Congolian forests, mirroring proposed ecological dynamics in the past.
Journal ArticleDOI
A global assessment of current and future biodiversity vulnerability to habitat loss–climate change interactions
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the first global assessment of current and potential future impacts on biodiversity of a habitat loss and fragmentation-climate change (HLF-CC) interaction, finding that recent climate change is likely (probability > 66%) to have exacerbated the impacts of HLF in 120 (18.5%) ecoregions, containing over half of all known terrestrial amphibian, bird, mammal, and reptile species.
Journal ArticleDOI
Phyloclimatic modeling: combining phylogenetics and bioclimatic modeling.
Chris Yesson,Alastair Culham +1 more
TL;DR: This is the first study to attempt bioclimatic projections on evolutionary time scales and demonstrates that Phyloclimatics modeling could be repeated for other plant groups and is fundamental to the understanding of evolutionary responses to climate change.
Journal ArticleDOI
The composition of phyllosphere fungal assemblages of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) varies significantly along an elevation gradient
Tristan Cordier,Tristan Cordier,Cécile Robin,Cécile Robin,Xavier Capdevielle,Xavier Capdevielle,Olivier Fabreguettes,Olivier Fabreguettes,Marie-Laure Desprez-Loustau,Marie-Laure Desprez-Loustau,Corinne Vacher,Corinne Vacher +11 more
TL;DR: Investigating variations in the composition of fungal assemblages inhabiting the phyllosphere of European beech at four sites over a gradient of 1000 m of elevation in the French Pyrénées Mountains suggests that climate warming might alter both the incidence and the abundance of phyllospheric fungal species, including potential pathogens.
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